The final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics with almost two months to December 2024 shows John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the leader of the opposition National Democratic Congress, maintains his lead in the poll with 51.1% of the votes.
The vice president and the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) is grabbed 37.3%, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK), an independent candidate also got 4.1%, Nana Kwame Bediako, an independent candidate also on 6.2% and others on 1.3% (weighted committed voters’ model).
However, using the likely voters’ model (unweighted), JDM is on 49.3%, DMB, 35.9%, AKK, 3.9%, NKB, 6.0%, others, 1.4% and undecided, 3.5%.
Voter apathy is expected to be one of the challenges for the governing NPP as 16% of voters who say they will not vote are their supporters, 3% are NDC, 38% are floating voters, 4% are other parties’ voters and 39% are those who declined to reveal their party affiliations. Overall, 4.4% of respondents said they would not vote in the election.
Crucial in winning the December elections will be which of the candidates receives greater support in his base as well as winning the votes of floating (independent) voters. The poll suggests while DMB receives 88% support of his base, JDM attracts 96%, +8 points advantage. Among the floating voters, JDM leads DMB 54% to 23%, a 31-point advantage. JDM also has an 18-point lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations.
The poll shows a significant decline in support for DMB among Muslims, a demography his campaign has targeted. DMB dropped by nearly 4% in October 2024 compared to July 2024.
The poll also shows that among first-time voters, JDM now leads with 46%, DMB, 38%, AKK, 5%, NKB, 10%, and others 1%. JDM and DMB were tied on 41% apiece in the July 2024 poll.
The poll also shows that among those who voted for Nana Akufo Addo in the 2020 election, 19% have switched their votes to JDM, 5% to AKK, 5% to NKB and 1% to other candidates with DMB retaining the remaining 70% choosing to stick with DMB. However, in crucial regions of Greater Accra, 20% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 election have switched to JDM and in the Central region, it is 37%.
John Mahama now leads in twelve (12) regions, up by one (1) compared to the July poll, Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti and Volta. Dr Bawumia leads in the Ashanti region, Eastern, Ahafo and North East regions. The Bono region is new in JDM’s column according to the poll, a situation caused by the resurgence of JDM and AKK in the region.
The ruling party is struggling to achieve its target of 85% in the Ashanti region as Nana Kwame Bediako surges. DMB remains on 66%, JDM, 22%, AKK, 4% and NKB, 7% and others, 1%.
Nana Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are also surging in Eastern region, as the duo now share 19% of the votes, DMB on 42% and JDM, 36% and others, 2%.
The poll also said JDM is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 56 out of the 111 constituencies and trailing the parliamentary candidates in 55 constituencies.
However, for Dr Bawumia, he is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 32 constituencies but trailing the parliamentary candidates in 79 constituencies, providing further evidence of the impact Alan and Bediako could be having on the ruling party’s chances in the December elections.
Source: Global InfoAnalystics
